In a recent conversation at SXSW, IBM CEO Arvind Krishna shared his optimistic vision for AI and quantum computing while acknowledging current market uncertainties.
When asked about concerns that AI might replace coders, Krishna firmly rejected the notion: “I’ll be simple. No qualifiers. No,” he stated, predicting that AI would write only “20 to 30% of the code” rather than the 90% some have forecasted.
Krishna explained this would actually increase demand for programmers rather than diminish it.
“If you can do 30% more code with the same number of people, are you going to get more code written or less? The answer is actually more,” he said, noting that historically, companies with higher productivity gain market share and produce more products.
On the energy consumption challenges facing AI, Krishna predicted significant improvements ahead.
“I’ll predict for you that five years from now, most of the models are going to be using 1% of the energy of what they’re using today,” he said, referencing recent breakthroughs in model efficiency.
Krishna also discussed how IBM’s hybrid cloud strategy positions the company advantageously for AI’s future. He noted that enterprises have barely begun utilizing their proprietary data for AI applications, with “only 1% of enterprise data so far captured in AI models.”
Looking ahead, Krishna expressed enthusiasm about domain-specific AI applications, particularly in healthcare, where AI-assisted drug discovery is already showing promise in clinical settings.
Throughout the discussion, Krishna maintained that AI would serve as a tool for human creativity rather than a replacement, drawing parallels to past technological fears about calculators and Photoshop that proved unfounded.
The IBM chief concluded that both AI and quantum computing would ultimately complement each other in solving humanity’s most complex problems rather than competing.
