AI Market Model
H1 2026 edition, available nowThe AI Software and Applications Market
What end customers pay for AI models, applications and tooling, sized bottom-up from ~180 vendor positions and projected to 2035. A 65-page report and the Excel dataset behind every number.
What is inside
Two deliverables, one set of numbers
The report tells you what the market is and where it goes. The dataset shows you every position, source and assumption behind it, so you can test the number yourself and rebuild any cut.
The report
65-page deck in AI Insider formatThe dataset
Excel workbook, 18 sheets, 12,000+ data pointsThe cuts we provide
Who books the revenue, with the wholesale between them netted out.
Direct from the labs, through hyperscalers, through application vendors, or by subscription.
United States, China, Europe and the rest, by vendor headquarters.
From software engineering and government to legal, voice and financial services.
Each segment split by company, with the rest grouped and counted.
Base case with growth by period, set beside bank and broker forecasts, and the drivers you can change.
One row of the dataset
Every vendor position carries the same 29 fields. The example is the Cursor position as published in this edition.
| Field | What it holds | Example |
|---|---|---|
| canonical_name, parent | The company, and its parent after acquisitions | Cursor, Anysphere |
| segment_id, layer | Where the position sits in the market | Software engineering, application |
| value, low, high | Annualized revenue position in US$m, with its range | 4,000 (4,000 to 8,146) |
| as_of | The date of the underlying figure, never rolled forward | June 9, 2026 |
| basis, method | Disclosed, triangulated or modeled, and how | Triangulated: reported, funding, headcount |
| grade | Evidence grade from A to C | B |
| hq_country, hq_source | Headquarters country, with its source | United States |
| source_id | Link to the source register | One per row |
| netting_class, net | Revenue passed to other vendors, and the position after netting | Inference share removed |
Try it out
Preview the report
Fifteen of the 65 pages are open, including the market evolution to 2035 and two cuts of the market. The other pages come with the report.
This page is part of the full report and dataset.
Get it nowInside the segments
Three of 16 application segments exceed $3bn
Software engineering, government and defense, and healthcare and life sciences lead the application layer. The other thirteen range from $0.2bn to $2.4bn, each split by player in the report.
The ~$144bn by vendor type, H1 2026, annualized, after netting.
All segments, ~180 positions
Every segment is split by player in the report, and every position is a row in the dataset.
Get it nowPricing
Choose how you want the model
Buy the H1 2026 edition once, or receive the report and dataset refreshed every quarter.
The H1 2026 report
The 65-page report, for the board paper or the investment memo.
- The market by vendor type, buyer and geography
- Deep dive on labs, hyperscalers and 17 segments
- Outlook to 2035, beside published forecasts
- Profiles of the 20 largest companies
- Method, netting and evidence backup
The report plus the model
The report and the Excel dataset behind every number, to test it and build your own cuts.
- Everything in the report
- The underlying dataset: 12,000+ data points in Excel
- ~180 positions with range, date, grade and source
- Live formulas from every position to the total
- 68 documented inputs you can change
- A 30-minute walkthrough with an analyst
Quarterly intelligence update
A recurring subscription: the report and dataset, refreshed every quarter with the latest disclosures and sources.
- A bridge from each edition to the last, position by position
- New companies and segments as they reach scale
- Analyst access for questions on the numbers
- Licences for teams and whole organizations
Delivered by email link. Invoice, payment link or purchase order. Cite as Source: AI Insider.
Methodology
From the vendor up, not from a survey down
Each company’s AI revenue is sized from what it discloses or what the evidence supports, double counting is removed, and the total is tested against every published study we can read.
Five steps from source to total, run the same way every edition.
Collect
Every figure about a company’s AI revenue that we can find, logged with its date, licence and what it establishes.
Resolve
Our proprietary engine matches each figure to the right company, with parents, aliases and acquisitions, so a product line is never counted beside its parent.
Size
Each company gets a position with a point, a low and a high at its own date, sized from disclosures or modeled from funding, headcount and peer benchmarks.
Net
An eleven-rule ledger removes revenue that changes hands between vendors before it reaches a buyer, such as inference bought from the labs.
Review and test
Analysts check each researched figure word for word on its source and grade it. The total is read against 30+ published studies and forecasts.
Eight types of source, each logged in the dataset’s source register.
Every position carries an evidence grade
Disclosed by the company or in a filing, at a stated date.
Triangulated from two or more independent figures.
Modeled from funding, headcount and peer benchmarks.
What the number counts, and what stays outside it. Published AI market figures range from about $35bn to about $700bn because each draws this line differently.
Questions
Before you buy
What does the ~$144bn measure?
What end customers pay for AI software in a year: foundation models, AI applications, AI tooling and AI resold through cloud platforms, at the annualized run rate for H1 2026 ($143.6bn in the model). Each dollar is counted once, where it leaves the buyer. Chips, data centers, cloud compute and AI consulting are outside the perimeter.
Why does it differ from other AI market figures?
Published estimates range from about $35bn to about $700bn because each measures a different scope: some count only enterprise spend, some add hardware and compute, some allocate AI features embedded in existing software. We read more than 30 published studies and forecasts scope first and compare only like with like. The report shows where each one sits.
What do I receive, and how?
The report is a 65-page deck. The dataset is an Excel workbook with 18 sheets and more than 12,000 data points: every vendor position with its source, the report’s cuts, the top 20 and their profile data, the roll-ups as live formulas, the assumptions, the netting ledger, the triangulation and the outlook. Both are sent by email link once payment clears. We issue an invoice or a payment link and accept purchase orders.
How current is the data?
The headline is the annualized run rate for H1 2026, as of June 30, 2026. Most positions are dated April to September 2026, each at its own disclosure date. Quarterly intelligence update clients receive the report and dataset refreshed every quarter, with a bridge that explains every change from the previous edition.
Can I use the numbers in client work or publications?
You can cite headline figures and charts with the credit “Source: AI Insider”. Use is licensed to your organization. Redistributing the workbook, reselling the data or publishing the full tables needs a separate agreement; ask us about team and enterprise terms.
Can I see a sample before buying?
Yes. Fifteen pages of the report are open in the preview on this page, and we send the preview as a PDF on request. For the dataset we can send a truncated workbook with the full field list and a subset of rows.
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Tell us which edition you need
We send an invoice or payment link, and the files follow as soon as payment clears. For the free preview, the PDF arrives by email.
- Report: $2,999, one-time
- Report and dataset: $5,999, one-time
- Quarterly intelligence update: talk to us
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