Natural gas prices could triple in some U.S. regions in the coming years as demand from AI data centers collides with slowing supply growth and rising liquefied natural gas exports, according to a new report from energy research firm Noreva. CEO Peter Gardett said energy markets have grown complacent about the possibility of rising gas prices, arguing that basic supply-and-demand dynamics point toward a significantly tighter market than existed just a few years ago.
The warning comes as major hyperscalers, including Meta, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, have committed to building massive natural gas power plants, ranging from gigawatt-scale to multi-gigawatt facilities, in Texas and Louisiana to support their AI data center operations. Gardett said investors have expressed surprise at the level of natural gas price risk these companies are willing to absorb, describing their behavior as atypical for energy purchasers.
Noreva projects natural gas prices could exceed $10 per million BTUs in certain regions, well above today’s range of roughly $2 to $4.50. Gardett attributed the shift partly to growing connections between domestic and global gas markets, as new pipeline infrastructure links previously isolated regions like West Texas to export markets. Since fuel costs make up roughly half of large-scale electricity generation expenses, a substantial price increase could raise operating costs for data centers, potentially pushing up token pricing or increasing pressure on electricity grids, further compounding public concern over rising utility costs.
